Polymarket users are actively betting on the pardon of Bankman-Fried and Ulbricht

Johny Smith

2025/01/20

3 mins read


Joe Biden’s presidency is coming to an end, and users of the decentralized forecasting platform Polymarket are assessing his possible decisions to pardon key figures in the crypto industry. The chance of easing the crackdown on former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) is estimated at 4%, while the chances of Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht are only 2%.

At the time of publication, platform users had already placed large bets. They spent more than $5 million on a possible SBF pardon and $1.2 million on Ulbricht. These numbers reflect the community’s interest in the fate of two individuals, whose cases have become symbols of problems in the cryptocurrency industry.

SBF was convicted of 7 criminal charges related to fraud on the FTX exchange and the investment fund Alameda Research. The entrepreneur received 25 years in prison. Ulbricht, whose Silk Road platform was used for illegal trading, is serving life in prison without the possibility of parole.

President Biden has previously signed pardons. In December, he reduced the sentences of more than 1,500 convicts under house arrest during the COVID-19 pandemic and also pardoned his son Hunter Biden, which sparked a wave of criticism from US citizens.

Despite speculation, neither Biden nor his predecessor and future President Donald Trump have publicly expressed intentions to pardon Bankman-Fried or Ulbricht. However, Trump has been known to consider easing sentences for other high-profile figures in the past, including agent Edward Snowden, who has been in Russia since 2013.

So far, the chances of pardoning the two notorious people remain extremely low. However, bets on Polymarket highlight how the crypto community is keeping an eye on potential decisions by Biden and Trump.

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