The cost of Coinbase shares is growing sharply on the news about inclusion in the S&P 500 index

Coinbase reported for the 1st quarter of 2025 with a revenue of $ 2.03 billion-this is 10% less than in Q4 2024. Profit per share (EPS) doubled: from $ 4.68 to $ 1.94. Free cash flow also decreased from +$ 195 million to $ 183 million. Despite this, Coin shares increased sharply against the background of positive news -the company will be included in the S&P 500 index, which immediately caused an increase in interest from institutional investors.

Key metrics, such as assets platform ($ 404 billion) and bitcoin deposits, remained stable, but a decrease in trade volumes exerted pressure on financial indicators. Nevertheless, analysts note an increase in the number of recommendations to “buy” after publishing reports. This is due to an increase in the share of subscription income, which compensates for part of the losses from a decrease in transactional activity.

On the graph, a pronounced divergence between the price of bitcoin and Coinbase shares is visible. Although Bitcoin began the ascending movement in April, Coin quotes lagged behind. Now, after the news about the inclusion in the S&P 500, the shares are rapidly catching up with BTC and go to new local price maximums. According to linear regression, 1% growth of BTC on average leads to 12.5% ​​of the change in EPS Coinbase. However, the determination coefficient R² = 0.39 suggests that most profit fluctuations are explained by internal factors.

In the short term, Coinbase securities can continue to increase by the output of capital to index funds forced to purchase Coin. Given the technical gap from bitcoin and improvement of moods, the current target goal is $ 340. At the same time, it is worth taking into account weak financial metrics that can limit growth in the medium term.

The fact of the inclusion of Coinbase in the index has become a catalyst for movement, confirming the recent trading idea from 10x Research. This is not the first time that a team of analysts exactly predicts a U -turn.

Author

Peter Ivanov